For those who resist the notion that idiots populate influential posts in government and corporations, we present Exhibit B: the battle for high definition DVD. We won’t belabor the history – you’ve probably read it here , here or just about anywhere.

The quick story is that there are two competing formats: Blu-ray and HD-DVD, each backed by a consortium of consumer electronics titans. Each format has its relative strengths and weakenesses, but either would be an impressive upgrade from your current gear. Very impressive. Due to the industry catfighting, however, it’s likely that one of these will be a loser, just like Betamax (which is Exhibit A).

We tend to identify higher beings by their ability to learn from mistakes, and the consumer electronics industry reinforces that guideline with its behavior here. Seriously—what other industry has repeated a trainwreck of the scale of the VHS/Betamax conflict?

Studios will gravitate toward the winner eventually, but you don’t want to be on the losing side. There are rumblings of dual-format players, i.e., high definition DVD players that will play discs of either format. This is similar to computer-based DVD players, where the bewildering assortment of DVD-RW vs DVD-RAM and the + vs – format squabbles are moot for nearly everyone. Most drives can handle any format. It’s nice for reading, but doesn’t reduce the confusion for the eight guys who successfully burn DVDs on their computers.

Making your do-I-buy-or-do-I-wait decision easier is the fact that all the early players suck. They look great when playing a high def disc, but they all have the nervous tics and quirky characteristics of distant relatives. Check out cnet’s CES coverage, and know that things haven’t improved much, despite gushing press releases.

Best to wait around and reconsider when the players get better and a bit cheaper. If you can stand it, table the decision until next Summer. In the meantime, invest in a high definition satellite or cable service with Tivo functionality and get your HD fix that way.

Think back: did you really need to be the first guy with a CD player in 1983 – you know, the $1,500 phonebook-size model with no remote control? Or could you have survived that extra year of waiting? Sure you’d have had to buy Pyromania on vinyl, but you would’ve had a unit to last for a decade at about half the price.

If you’re one of the laserdisc geeks who simply must go for it, know that our bet is on the HD-DVD format, rather than the Blu-ray (which will be legendary for damaging the PlayStation franchise). It’s got the momentum, it’s second-gen players will be available sooner, it’s more versatile and it’s cheaper.