Last week we mentioned the cutoff for new customers hoping to travel for Thanksgiving. The industry is rolling into the busiest part of the year, with the highest concentration of flight requests: Thanksgiving and Christmas, followed by ski weekends at all the right spots. As we’re hearing more and more, if you’re planning on flying charter but haven’t booked yet, forget it. [Editor: See update here].

An Availability Trend?

But perhaps there’s a long term trend at play. Private aviation is more popular than ever, but the unprecedented array of options means that fewer new customers are choosing “full ownership,” i.e., purchasing an entire aircraft. A Marquis Jet rep pointed out that this dynamic could reveal greater differences between fractional-sourced fleets and charter-sourced fleets, especially at peak periods.

With fractional fleets, the company is obligated to purchase new aircraft to maintain a strict ratio. Each 1/8 share owner actually owns a piece of an actual aircraft. Further, the company’s operating model demands that it puchase additional aircraft to manage peak demand. Failing to do so can undermine earnings. It’s no surprise that industry leader NetJets (supplier to Marquis Jet) is the largest procurer of private jets and services. In fact, the company purchased more aircraft in the past year than the rest of the industry combined.

With charter fleets, there is no similar obligation to grow the pool. The charter fleet includes the private aircraft of companies and wealthy individuals, who look to gain revenue when the jet would be otherwise idle. It also includes planes owned and operated by charter operators throughout the country. With fewer flyers choosing to purchase entire planes, the onus of investment rests with operators, for whom additional purchases are a significant and carefully planned event.

At best, one can count on broad market forces to re-equalize to the influx of travelers, but that’s little comfort when you can’t find a jet for Cabo in December. One additional cause of scarcity is the fractional companies. Their business model requires “supplemental lift” from charter during peak periods, and they’re clever enough to reserve aircraft through long-term contracts. As their needs grow, charter availability shrinks further during peak periods.

In the charter world, there can be three outcomes to your request: the right plane (exactly what you want), the wrong plane (something older, less carefullly managed), or no plane. Basic logic dictates that if you add travelers at a greater rate than planes, and the latter two options will surface more frequently.

Fractionals may cost more, but there’s only one outcome: the right plane. As long as you play by the rules and provide sufficient advanced notice, the company is obligated to serve up your jet of choice (or an upgrade).

To date, the charter world has kept pace, and the more reputable providers take the extra step of reserving capacity through exclusive relationships. But the long-term argument makes intuitive sense, especially with the growing ranks of the wealthy and the increasing popularity of private aviation.

What It Means To You

If you want to fly in the next few months, it’s getting tight. Jet cards like Marquis Jet are quick contracts with little long-term implications, so these make the most sense. About $116,000 to Marquis Jet by Friday will get you on-board for Thanksgiving with a five-day advance notice. For longer-term solutions, take a look at the free Decision Guide to Private Jet Travel here. It includes a list of due diligence questions to examine as you make your selection.